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How to predict the outcomes of a soccer match

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Many people predict the outcome of sports events very well. Professional gamblers can do this and live from it well. Team managers must do this to some degree so that they can prepare a group season, know which games to concentrate on and which to leave more to hope. Many sports journalists are also more likely than not to do so. Some people might think it works or feels good, but sports science is there and if you know which factors are important, you can predict match-results successfully too.

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The first and most obvious thing to look at when deciding who is likely to win a hasil pertandingan bola is the relative position of the teams in the table of the league. If there are a number of places in the two teams, the higher team will mostly win and if the teams are close, a draw will be the likely outcome. You can do this by a rule of thumb, or by going through the records and quantifying how much benefit the position of the league is.

For example, in the last five years in the English Premier League, when both teams are 6 on average, a draw is the most likely outcome. Different ligaments depend on how competitive they are and will vary at different times during the season. The League position is less effective when the results are insufficient for a reliable prediction at the start of the season; and also when teams (particularly more successful teams) are tired by the end of the season!

Home or away

The next main factor is whether or not a team plays at home. Victories are relatively rare in some leagues abroad. This is mainly due to the influence of the crowd. To teams with a long journey and few supporters, the stadium of opposition can be a hostile environment. Also (although it should not, of course, be done) the crowd can influence the arbitrator. Refereeing is full of marginal decisions and the presence of a large crowd of thugs may influence the judgment of the referee.

Scientifically tested by analyzing fit videos, this effect of’ Home Bias’ by referees has been demonstrated to be a genuine phenomenon, not just frustration in the minds of deceived fans! Due to this home advantage teams often have two configurations: one for home and one for distance. Often distant teams are cautious and play a defensive midfield instead of a striker, making it even less likely to be victorious. It is easy to quantify the home advantage in a league by recording all home victories over a season and comparing it to the number of distant wins. The ratio is usually between 2 and 1 for the home team.

Who’s playing? Who’s playing?

The team announcement is a key decision-maker. When the teams are named, usually 20 minutes before the start, that gives a big indication of how the game goes. The team sheet says two things: first of all whether the manager fields his best team (e.g. are players injured or is he saving players for a bigger match?). Firstly, the possible configurations will inform you.